Algolritmo once again presents the forecast model for the UEFA Champions League, updated to the quarterfinals. The tournament is reaching its final stages and the model (which uses the data provided by Stratabet) points out who are the current favorites to take the most coveted title in Europe. Below we show the odds of each team winning the competition and the odds of victory, draw or defeat in the first leg of the quarter-final clashes. Also, the text briefly explains something that may cause strangeness to some readers: why have the odds of the teams changed and why is there a new favorite?

If you want more details of the model used, read this text in which the methodology is explained.

Resultados:

The following image presents the current probability of each team being champion:

Many readers may be surprised that each team’s odds have been changed and there are new favorites since the last model. This happens for two main reasons:

First, between the round of 16 and the quarterfinals of the Champions League all teams have played several games in their national leagues, which means there is more information about the performance of each team. Real Madrid, for example, has risen in productivity (and confidence) since eliminating PSG.

Segundo, o sorteio influencia muito nas probabilidades. Ao enfrentar um oponente mais fraco, o time tem muito mais probabilidade de avançar e ser campeão. Times que enfrentam oponentes fortes tem menos chances de seguir em frente no campeonato. Por exemplo, o Manchester City (antigo favorito na versão passada do modelo), irá enfrentar o Liverpool, que é um adversário extremamente complicado. Enquanto isso o Bayern de Munique enfrentará o Sevilla, que teoricamente oferece menos trabalho se comparado ao Liverpool. Isso explica o fato de o Bayern de Munique ser o novo favorito segundo esse modelo.

Second, the draw greatly influences the odds. When facing a weaker opponent, the team is much more likely to advance and win the tournament. Teams that face strong opponents are less likely to move forward. For example, Manchester City (former favorite in the last version of the model), will face Liverpool, who is an extremely complicated opponent. Meanwhile Bayern Munich will face Sevilla, which theoretically offers less opposition if compared to Liverpool. This explains why Bayern Munich is the new favorite in this model.

I also prepared a chart with the odds of victory, draw or defeat in the first leg quarter-final clashes that are taking place this week:

Last, I present the expected goals table (xG) that I used in the current model. If you want to better understand how these data were used I suggest reading this text, which presents the first version of the forecast model of the Champions League 2017-2018.

So, what are your guesses for the quarterfinals of the Champions League? Who would you bet on to be the champion?

This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.

Rafael Blay

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Algolritmo's founder. I have a bachelor's in Computer Science and a master's in Analytics. My goal is to bring a new perspective into Brazilian football. I'm particularly interested in communicating complex ideas through simple data visualizations.

I graduated in Computer Science and Business Administration at the University of Southern California and got a masters degree in Analytics at the same institution. I have worked as a Data Science intern at companies such as Facebook, Itaú and Looqbox.

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