The long-awaited UEFA Champions League final is approaching and tomorrow we will find out which team will win the most coveted tournament in Europe. As in other Champions League stages, Algolritmo (using data provided by Stratabet) brings the odds of each team winning the competition. If you want to understand a little better how these values were calculated, I suggest reading this text, in which I explain the model. The football world has high expectations for this game and we want to know your predictions!
Results:
These are the odds of Real Madrid and Liverpool win the trophy in the final in Kiev:
We can say that Real Madrid, winner of the last 2 editions of the tournament is favorite to win, however a Liverpool victory would be far from a huge upset.
Real Madrid had an interesting season and with some oscillations, the club failed to produce great consistent performances in the Spanish league as well as in the group stage of the Champions League, advancing to the round of 16 as runner-ups in their group. In the knockout, the team managed impose itself mainly after an increase in Ronaldo’s productivity, easily beating PSG in the round of 16. However, the Madrid team was close to being eliminated by Juventus in the quarterfinals and had a tough match against Bayern Munich in the semis. Even so, Zinedine Zidane’s team showed they have a lot of experience playing this kind of tournament and players who are not afraid of big games.
The English side, led by Jurgen Klopp, had an excellent season with magical performances of Mohammed Salah alongside Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané. Liverpool had good results in the Premier league and in the group stage of the Champions League, ending in first of its group the group (without any losses) and easily winning against Porto in the round of 16. After that, Liverpool had one of the best performances of the season and eliminated Manchester City, one of the strongest teams of 2017-2018 and big favorites to wining the Champions League. Liverpool reached the final after a semi-final full of goals and some slips of the English side against Rome. Liverpool hopes to break Real Madrid’s hegemony in the Champions League and make a return as one of the top teams in Europe.
If you want to understand in more detail how the probabilities were calculated, just read this text, in which the model used is explained. In addition, the table below is updated with the expected goals (xg) values for Real Madrid and Liverpool:
So, what are your predictions for the Champions League final? Who would you bet on to be champion?
This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.
Algolritmo's founder. I have a bachelor's in Computer Science and a master's in Analytics. My goal is to bring a new perspective into Brazilian football. I'm particularly interested in communicating complex ideas through simple data visualizations.
I graduated in Computer Science and Business Administration at the University of Southern California and got a masters degree in Analytics at the same institution. I have worked as a Data Science intern at companies such as Facebook, Itaú and Looqbox.